Madison, Wisconsin 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

274
FXUS63 KMKX 250205 AAA
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
905 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers with a few rumbles of thunder are expected overnight
  across south central Wisconsin and over all of southern
  Wisconsin on Friday. Overall rainfall amounts will remain
  fairly light, especially over southeast Wisconsin.

- Dry and nice this weekend, but there continues to be a signal
  for strong to severe storms potential Monday into Tuesday.

- High temperatures may warm to near 80F for Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 905 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

There may be some showers that move northeast through the area
into the overnight hours, with the main area of showers moving
east toward and into south central Wisconsin. A rumble of
thunder may occur southwest of Madison. The main 500 mb
shortwave trough moves east through the region Friday, and will
bring the area of showers east through the rest of the area.
Highest rainfall amounts will be in northwestern parts of the
area and lowest in the southeast.

Gusty north winds will develop as the pressure gradient
increases on Friday and into Friday night, with cold air
advection helping to dry things out into Friday night.
High temperatures should be into the lower to middle 50s on
Friday.

Wood

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

Sprinkles or very light showers will continue to stream from sw
WI toward central WI late this afternoon. There is a 20 percent
chance for showers and storms south to southwest of Madison
late this afternoon and early evening where a stationary front
will become a cold front and move southwestward into nw IL and
ne IA.


For tnt, the rain will be delayed a bit with the dry ely flow
possibly contributing to that trend. The shortwave trough
currently over ern NE will reach the MS River by 12Z Fri then
move across srn WI through mid afternoon. At the surface, a weak
wave of low pressure will track from se IA and nrn MO to wrn
Lake Erie by Fri evening. A PW axis of 1 inch will accompany
these features with some low to mid level frontogenesis expected
along with the PVA aloft. Thus widespread light rain will
spread into south central WI during the early morning hours, but
not until after 12Z Fri for se WI. It appears the dry ely flow
will limit the rainfall to 0.20 inches or less with higher
totals north and west of MSN.

Cyclogenesis will then take place from the lower Great Lakes
into srn Quebec Fri nt-Sat with brisk nly winds bringing drier
air to srn WI Fri nt. Large high pressure will then follow for
Sat afternoon and night. Relatively cool temps for the lake
counties with high temps near 60F well inland.

Gehring

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 251 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

High pressure will shift east for Sunday with lgt sly winds and
warm advection beginning as the upper ridge nears. High temps
will rise into the middle 60s well away from Lake MI.

Breezy sly winds and warm, moist advection will then increase
Sun nt- Mon as low pressure over the intermountain west moves
into the nrn Great Plains and eventually nrn MN. There will
likely be a round or two of showers and storms within a warm,
humid airmass. Another round of showers and storms would likely
occur Mon nt ahead of the approaching cold front that will pass
on Tue, with less activity along the front on Tue. High pressure
will then arrive for Wed and could linger into Thu. High temps
on Monday may reach 80F as long as clouds and precipitation stay
away for the afternoon.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 905 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

There may be some showers that move northeast through the area
into the overnight hours, with the main area of showers moving
east toward and into south central Wisconsin. A rumble of
thunder may occur southwest of Madison. The main area of showers
will move east through the rest of the area on Friday.

Ceilings are expected to remain VFR category and gradually lower
overnight. They will drop to 500 to 900 feet AGL Friday morning
and linger Friday afternoon, into the evening in southeast
terminals. Ceilings should rise back to VFR category from
northwest to southeast later Friday into Friday night.
Visibility should drop into the 2 to 5 mile range with the
showers.

Northeast winds into the overnight hours are expected, then
shift north Friday morning. Gusty north winds will develop as
the pressure gradient increases on Friday and into Friday night,
with cold air advection helping to dry things out into Friday
night.

Wood

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 905 PM CDT Thu Apr 24 2025

Modest northeast winds will prevail overnight across Lake
Michigan. Low pressure around 29.9 inches will then move
northeast to the south of Lake Michigan Friday morning, bringing
gusty north winds behind it for Friday afternoon and night.
Gales appear unlikely at this time over the open waters.

Breezy conditions will continue through Saturday, with winds
tapering Saturday night, as strong high pressure around 30.5
inches builds in from the northern Great Plains.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from Friday afternoon into
Saturday afternoon for the nearshore waters of Lake Michigan,
for gusty north winds and building waves.

Wood

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644...1 PM Friday to 7 AM
     Saturday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646...4 PM Friday to 4 PM
     Saturday.

&&

$$

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